Bazyomo SD, Lawin EA and Ouedraogo A
This paper presents analyses of solar seasonal future trend and forecast the annual power output changes of one and two tracking axes photovoltaic system. Using as inputs a set of eight data of the recentest climatic models which involve the solar radiations on all sky and temperatures of West-Africa region, the calculations have been made upon the R environment. The seasonal trend of solar irradiation from 2006-2100 has been analyzed and the outputs power changes from now to the mid-21st century have been determined. Photovoltaic power output is estimated to decrease in all the parts of West-Africa. The results show that for trends from 2006-2100 the maximum is of 0.05 Wm-2 year-1 for Gambia and over the period JJA while the changes strongest negative change 0.15 Wm-2 year-1 and corresponds has season DJF with the Cape Verde. Compared with the periods 2006-2100, all the trends the period 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 are more marked. Compared to the period 2006-2051, the results of the seasonal trends of the period 2051-2100 are marked for certain countries and less for others. Cape Verde always presents the trends weakest of 0.55 Wm-2 year-1 for the minimum of season JJA. Concerning future changes of power output, largest decreases trends strongest go from -3% respectively to -8% decade for the systems with axes of traction for the Sierra Leone and the Cote d’Ivoire respectively and from -2 to -8% decade for the systems with two axes of tractions for the Sierra Leone and the Cote d’Ivoire.